Country risk ratings are useful because they compress a great deal of information into one word. That is also their weakness. A manager who reads “Elevated” and approves or cancels a trip on that basis alone has skipped most of the work the rating was meant to start.
A rating is an average, and averages hide things
A national rating summarises conditions across an entire country. In practice risk is local. A capital’s business district, an industrial zone three hours away and a border region can sit at very different levels while sharing one national label. Before relying on a rating, check whether the assessment describes geographic variation and whether your destination is one of the exceptions.
Look at the categories, not just the headline
Most rating systems, including ours, break the overall level into categories such as security, political and civil unrest, terrorism, crime, health, transport and operational disruption. Two countries with the same overall level can have completely different profiles. One may be driven by road safety and medical capacity, the other by civil unrest. The measures that reduce risk in the first are irrelevant in the second.
Ask who is exposed and how
A rating describes the environment. It does not describe your exposure. A two-day visit to a head office by an experienced traveller is a different proposition from a six-month deployment of a project team to a remote site. The same country level can justify a short briefing in one case and a full security plan in the other.
Check the date and the sources
Conditions change. A rating without an assessment date is of limited value, and a rating without a rationale cannot be tested. Good practice is to publish the date of the assessment, the reasoning behind each level and the sources relied on, so a reader can judge how current and how well-founded it is.
Use the rating to decide how much more to do
The most practical use of a country level is as a trigger. Many organisations set thresholds: routine approval at lower levels, a destination briefing at moderate levels, and a trip-specific risk assessment and senior sign-off at higher levels. The rating does not make the decision. It tells you how much care the decision deserves.
In short
- Treat the national level as a starting point.
- Read the category ratings and the written rationale.
- Check whether your specific destination differs from the national picture.
- Consider who is travelling, for how long and to do what.
- Confirm when the assessment was last reviewed.
How AxsuR helps
AxsuR is an independent, senior-led risk advisory firm supporting organisations across the Middle East and Africa. Find out more about our Risk assessments and advisory or request a consultation.
