This page explains how AxsuR rates country risk in the Country Risk Portal: what the levels mean, what we assess, how we reach a judgement and what a rating should and should not be used for.
The five levels
| Level | What it means |
|---|---|
| 1. Low | Incidents affecting business travellers or operations are infrequent and usually minor. Authorities and services generally function effectively. Routine precautions are sufficient. |
| 2. Moderate | Some risks are present and incidents occasionally affect travellers or operations. Disruption is normally short-lived. Travellers need a destination briefing and sensible precautions. |
| 3. Elevated | Notable risks exist and incidents can directly affect travellers or operations. Conditions may differ sharply between locations. Travel and operations need specific preparation and management oversight. |
| 4. High | Serious risks are present and incidents are frequent or severe. Local response capacity may be limited. Activity should be essential only, under a tailored security plan with senior approval. |
| 5. Critical | Extreme risks are present, such as active conflict or a breakdown of order. Normal business activity is not viable. Any presence requires specialist security support and tested contingency plans. |
Not Yet Assessed. Where AxsuR has not completed and approved an assessment, the profile says “Not Yet Assessed”. We do not estimate a rating to fill a gap, and no level should be inferred.
What we assess
Each country receives an overall level and a separate level for seven categories. Two countries with the same overall level can have very different profiles, so the category ratings and their rationale matter as much as the headline.
- Security. Armed conflict, militancy and the general security environment.
- Political and civil unrest. Political stability, protests, strikes and unrest.
- Terrorism. Intent and capability of terrorist groups and the record of attacks.
- Crime. Petty, violent and organised crime, including kidnap for ransom.
- Medical and health. Health threats and the standard and accessibility of medical care.
- Transport and road safety. Road, air and other transport safety and reliability.
- Operational disruption. Infrastructure, utilities, bureaucracy and other obstacles to normal business.
How we reach a rating
A rating is a structured professional judgement, not the output of a formula. For each category the analyst considers five factors.
- Likelihood. How often relevant incidents occur, the trend, and the intent and capability of those who could cause harm.
- Impact. How serious the consequences would be for people, assets and operations, and how well local services could respond.
- Exposure. How far business travellers and corporate operations are actually exposed, as distinct from the population at large.
- Geographic variation. Whether risk differs between regions, cities or districts. Where it does, areas are assessed and shown separately. The Palestinian Territories, for example, are assessed separately for the West Bank and Gaza.
- Professional judgement. The analyst weighs the evidence, including its gaps and reliability, and records the reasoning in a written rationale.
The overall level reflects the categories that matter most to business travellers and operations in that country. It is not an arithmetic average: a single severe category can determine the overall level.
Sources
Assessments draw on attributable sources, in this order of preference:
- Official government travel advisories
- Diplomatic and consular information
- Official emergency and health authorities
- Authoritative international organisations
- Credible, dated local and international reporting
- AxsuR’s own field experience and that of vetted local partners
Each profile lists the sources used, with publication dates where available. We do not reproduce commercial risk assessments produced by others.
Review and approval
- Every rating carries a written rationale, an assessment date, source references and a review status.
- An assessment is drafted by an analyst and checked by a reviewer before it is published. Members see published assessments only.
- Each published change increases the profile’s version number. The version and generation date appear on every PDF briefing.
- Profiles show the date they were last reviewed. Profiles are reviewed periodically and when conditions change significantly. They are not updated continuously.
Incidents and emergency contacts
Incident records are a selection of sourced events relevant to travellers and operations. Each shows its source, verification status and review date. The list is not exhaustive. Emergency numbers show the source they were checked against and the date. If a number cannot be verified, the profile says so.
How to use a rating
- Treat the country level as a starting point. Read the category ratings and the rationale.
- Check whether your destination differs from the national picture.
- Consider who is travelling, for how long and to do what.
- Check the assessment date and consult the official advisories linked in each profile.
- For higher-risk destinations or longer deployments, commission a trip-specific or site-specific assessment.
Limits
Country profiles are general reference information for approved members. They reflect AxsuR’s judgement at the assessment date, are not a guarantee of safety, and do not replace an assessment written for a specific trip, site or project.